... the next years. Professor Kemp, of Aberdeen University, claims that oil prospecting must be measured by "first of all the exploration success rate and secondly the size of finds". The supply of oil has fallen down during the years. Furthermore the size of new development is well below 40 million barrel of equivalent oil. Fact is, during the years technological progress has been made which brought down costs. The result of those improvements is an increasing productivity and a decreasing of investment- and operating costs. For example the overall costs per barrel have been cut into halves since 1980. Scientists are convinced that the long-term expectation depends essential on oil price behaviour. "The exploration of oil is generally financed from net cash flows, and full cycle returns to explorationists are very price sensitive"says Prof. Kemp. The future of oil depends on "technological innovation and its widespread adoption" which will be ...

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