... predicting an events impact, the weaknesses of the data used in assessment, the questionable predictive qualities of past histories and the problems arising from the need for substantial subjective involvement from the assessor. First though I discuss the problems associated with the assessors need to be aware of risk. Awareness is fundamental to risk assessment both in terms of obtaining a probability and in obtaining a likely consequence. The risk assessors' awareness is their ability to recognise and accept that a potentially harmful situation existsa. Underwriters need to be aware of all possibilities in order to give correct risk assessment. Underwriters may use several approaches or mechanisms to try and increase their awareness, such as brainstorming and Delphic forecasting. However the fact that unforeseen risks do occur highlights the weaknesses of these mechanisms at ensuring awareness. The problem for underwriters is that their ability to be aware is limited by ...

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